Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
