Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
